MOGADISHU — Somalia’s protracted electoral dispute is often framed as a constitutional disagreement over whether the country should transition from its indirect, clan-based electoral model to universal suffrage. While technically accurate, this interpretation overlooks a more consequential transformation underway: the reconfiguration of Somalia’s political order after three decades of externally mediated governance.
A new policy commentary by the Heritage Institute, a Mogadishu-based think tank, argues that the current impasse reflects a broader struggle over who will ultimately control political authority as Somalia’s state institutions gradually assume responsibilities once managed by international actors.
From International Stewardship to Somali State Authority
For much of the post-civil war era, Somalia’s political system rested on two complementary pillars.
The first was a Nairobi-centered international political framework, through which the United States, European Union, United Nations, and other partners coordinated diplomatic engagement, financial assistance, and political mediation whenever Somali leaders reached deadlock.
The second pillar was security. African Union peacekeepers secured Mogadishu, while the United States focused on counterterrorism operations and Turkey invested heavily in rebuilding Somalia’s military, public administration, and state infrastructure.
Together, these arrangements created an externally supported political order that enabled Somalia’s institutions to function despite persistent internal divisions.
Security Gains Reshape Political Landscape
According to the Heritage Institute, that order has begun to change significantly.
Since the Federal Government launched its nationwide offensive against al-Shabaab in August 2022—supported by local clan militias alongside U.S. and Turkish military assistance—government forces recaptured more than 200 towns and villages, reducing militant pressure around Mogadishu and creating space for economic recovery.
Improved security encouraged diaspora investment, accelerated construction activity, expanded commerce, and increased government revenues through the capital’s port and airport.
Somalia also reached the Completion Point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in December 2023, securing approximately $4.5 billion in debt relief, restoring access to international financing and marking one of the country’s most significant economic milestones in three decades.
Progress Faces Renewed Security Challenges
The think tank cautions, however, that these gains remain fragile.
Since early 2025, al-Shabaab has intensified its insurgency, attempting to reclaim territory lost during earlier military operations. In March 2025, the group carried out a high-profile assassination attempt targeting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inside Mogadishu, underscoring that security improvements cannot yet be considered permanent.
Despite these setbacks, Somalia’s federal institutions now exercise considerably greater administrative authority than they did only a few years ago, allowing Mogadishu to play a more direct role in shaping national political decisions.
Electoral Dispute Mirrors Transition in Power
The Heritage Institute argues that the electoral crisis should therefore be understood as a contest over the country’s evolving balance of power rather than merely a disagreement over constitutional procedure.
The Federal Government maintains that Somalia’s elections should increasingly be administered through domestic institutions instead of externally brokered political agreements.
Opposition leaders, however, contend that Somalia’s institutions remain too weak and insufficiently independent to oversee competitive elections without broad political consensus and international guarantees.
According to the report, both positions contain legitimate concerns but are also shaped by political self-interest.
Government leaders favor institutions they increasingly control, while opposition groups seek to preserve a system of negotiated power-sharing that has historically prevented any single political actor from dominating the political process.
Federal Member States Add Another Layer
The dispute has been further complicated by resistance from Puntland and Jubbaland, both of which oppose constitutional and electoral reforms advanced by Mogadishu.
The report argues that these federal member states benefited from the decentralized political order supported through international mediation, whereas a stronger federal government inevitably reduces regional autonomy and concentrates authority in the capital.
President Hassan Sheikh’s Changing Position
The commentary also highlights what it describes as a significant political reversal by the incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
During the 2021 electoral crisis, Hassan Sheikh joined opposition leaders in demanding consensus-based electoral arrangements and opposing efforts by then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo to exercise greater control over the electoral process.
Today, as president, Hassan Sheikh argues that Somalia’s strengthened institutions should manage elections domestically.
The Heritage Institute acknowledges that Somalia’s institutional capacity has indeed improved since 2021 but notes that the president has yet to fulfill his own commitments to complete constitutional reforms and organize direct elections.
Instead, Parliament extended presidential and parliamentary terms from four to five years in March 2026 and postponed elections until 2027 after political negotiations failed, while armed confrontations erupted in Mogadishu following the expiration of the president’s mandate.
Recommendations for Managing the Transition
Rather than preserving the old internationally mediated system or concentrating authority entirely within the executive, the Heritage Institute proposes a gradual transition built around stronger institutional safeguards.
Among its recommendations are:
- Establishing an independent electoral commission jointly nominated by government, opposition, federal member states, and civil society.
- Agreeing on a fixed election date that cannot be altered unilaterally.
- Publishing transparent voter registration and electoral financing timelines.
- Creating caretaker arrangements whenever elected mandates expire to prevent incumbents from using state power to influence electoral competition.
The report also urges opposition groups to support universal suffrage as Somalia’s long-term objective while focusing negotiations on institutional safeguards rather than defending the existing clan-based electoral system indefinitely.
International Partners Urged to Adjust Strategy
The Heritage Institute concludes that Somalia’s international partners should gradually shift their role from direct political mediation toward strengthening Somali institutions, including the civil service, public administration, electoral management, and security sector.
It highlights Turkey’s expanding role in state-building, arguing that Ankara is uniquely positioned to facilitate dialogue among Somali stakeholders because of its longstanding investments in government institutions, infrastructure, and security cooperation.
A Defining Test for Somalia’s Political Future
The think tank concludes that Somalia’s electoral dispute represents a defining test of the country’s political transition.
“The government must demonstrate that stronger state institutions can coexist with political limits,” the report states. “The opposition and federal member states must demonstrate that constitutional safeguards do not require preserving a system built around external mediation.”
Ultimately, the report argues, Somalia’s democratic future will depend not simply on the timing of elections but on whether the country can successfully transition from an externally managed political order to one sustained by legitimate and accountable domestic institutions.
